By Sebasdess.
Mathematics is of paramount importance poker. Thus, many players refer to the "odds" when playing. You've probably heard players caller saying that "they have the pot odds." While pot odds (pot odds) are easy to calculate implied odds (implied odds), they can be much more complicated for a beginner, especially 'no limit'. However, a call that is bad if we did at 'pot odds' can in fact be a good call if we made the 'implied odds' and it is important to be able to do the proper calculation in order to avoid costly mistakes.
First, what does the concept of 'implied odds' and how do we apply this concept to our game? It is both simple and complicated at the same time.
Take a small example: you have position on your opponent and your hands 7
-8 . You are against a single opponent, and you've made on the turn. Table 4 is , 9 , A 
, K 
. You that you are behind in the hand: your eight-high is definitely not the best hand. He bet $ 4 in a pot that contains $ 10. From your experience against this player, you know that your opponent is not a bluff and you can not make him sleep better main.Si we rely only on pot odds, you should fold your here hand you will hit your flush draw only once in five (1: 4), and it costs you $ 4 to win $ 14 (1: 3.5). Therefore, the 'pot odds' indicate that you should fold. By cons, implied odds can come change your decision. Take the time to analyze these famous implied odds. You know that your opponent has a hand with some force and you can not bluff your opponent at this stage of the hand. You also know that you do not forgive money in the pot if we do not hit our draw (even if a 7 or Aug. 1 fell on the river, you do not have the best hand). But what happens if you hit your draw? You may resume your opponent if you bet or wager yourself if'll check. As you do not plan to put any additional wager in the pot if you do not hit your draw, but that you intend to win extra bets if your draw strikes the pot if you win may be higher than its current size. This estimate you add to the pot size is part of your implied odds. In other words, the implied odds are the amount you have to put the game to earn an estimated total. Implied odds in the same way that the pot odds are calculated by adding ... but this estimate. How to calculate the amount then?
Do a bit of concrete and put more specific to our example above numbers. Your opponent has before him $ 40 and you cover. Your opponent is not bad, but not great either opponent. He bet $ 4 in a $ 10 pot. You call the bet. You hit your draw, he checks, you bet $ 9 in a pot contains $ 18 ... and he calls your bet with AJo. Calling his $ 4 at the turn you therefore saves $ 23 (10 +4 +9). You do not had pot odds of 1: 3.5 (4: 14) when you make your call, but odds of nearly 1: 6 (4: 23) .... These ratings, trying account $ 9 just call your opponent, so you allowed to call his $ 4 no problem ... thanks to implied odds.
How do we, then, to calculate its implied odds? Unfortunately, it is impossible to do so before the end of the hand. Implied odds are not calculated: they feel! We must make an estimate, not a precise calculation with precise figures. Which distinguish a good player from a bad, it is often the ability to make estimates closer to reality.
One of the shortcomings of many players who learn this concept is to push a little too far and estimate their implied odds a little too spirited. They believe to be able to empty their pockets every time the opponent if they hit their draw unpredictable. Thus, these players call made too large and fail to get paid enough for this game has a positive expectation. Or, on the contrary, these same players bet too little (or too often call when beaten) and offering their huge implied odds opponents (implied odds when you play against, they are called 'reverse implied odds ').
We need to know to be reasonable in your estimate and does not let go by optimism momentum.
Various factors increase / decrease your implied odds. For example, to name a few:
- The number of players in the hand, there is more players, the higher the chance that one (or more) opponent is ready Ea put money into play on the river.
- Skills of your opponent a good player is less likely to lose all his chips on a marginal hand; while a 'fish' will often call your bet even if he knows he is beaten.
- The level of aggressiveness of your opponent: a passive player will rarely bet / raise. Conversely, an aggressive opponent will be willing to put more money in the pot. Being able to raise (or be revived!) Greatly increases your implied odds compared to having an opponent who put little and does not restart.
- The strength of your hand (your) opponent (s): an opponent with a very strong hand is much more likely to lose his stack a player that has a very weak hand;
- The size of what remains to carpet your opponent pot committed player also has much more chance of losing the rest of his stack a player who has plenty of chips in front of him;
- Your image: you generally have better implied odds if you have an aggressive image; Conversely, if you play very tight and rather passive, your opponent may place you on a big hand much easier.
That said, you do not know your opponent's hand, or his own reading on your own hand. So, how to quantify these factors?
First, you remove the head "if I hit, I empty it." You do not viderez 100% of the time and therefore is better to go a reasonable estimate. To do so, determine the amount for either a neutral situation (break-even). To calculate this, you must know the odds of hitting your hand. In our example, we had 1: 4. Then multiply the size of the bet by the odds of not hitting. In our example, we must multiply $ 4 by 4, which gives us $ 16. Subtract from this amount the sum of the pot and put your opponent (here, $ 10 +4). And you have the total amount you must get on the river for this situation is a positive expectation.
So the quick calculation should be:
Money to go looking for either a neutral expectation =
(Size of the bet x odds against you hitting) - current pot - Putting your opponent
So if we take the example prédédent: $ 4 (bet size) * 4 (odds against you hitting; 4 is 1:4) - $ 10 (pot size $) - $ 4 (size setting) = 4 * 4 - 10-4 = 16 -14 = $ 2. You must pick up $ 2 on the river to make the call of $ 4 "neutral ev".
Now, how to apply it when you are in action? Here are some examples and reasoning that I do when I'm on the table. To simplify everything, consider you on the turn, and you close the action. Consider also that you will not be able to bluff your opponent by raising on the turn, or by building / reviving the river.
Example 1: You have 9 outs (flush draw)
9 outs on the turn, it is 9: 37 ... so you have odds of 1: 4.1
If your opponent bets $ 5, and you must earn $ 5 X4.1 to make it profitable to call the bet. So, $ 20.50 to win in total. If the pot contains $ 10, and your opponent has bet $ 5, so you need to get a total of $ 5.50 on the river ($ 20.50 - $ 10 - $ 5). How to see if $ 5.50 is reasonable? Just put it in relation to the size of the pot on the river, the 'range' hand your opponent might have, and all other factors appointed a little higher. In this example, the pot will be $ 10 + $ 5 (its implementation) + $ 5 (you who called his bet) = $ 20. You must pick up $ 5.50 in a pot of $ 20, which is probably very reasonable.
Example 2: You have 9 outs (flush daw)
Let the same reasoning, except this time, the pot contains $ 5 and your opponent bets $ 5. You still need to win once to recoup the $ 20.50 is to call the bet. Here you should get $ 10.50 more on the river to monetize all (20.50 - $ 5 - $ 5). To see if this is reasonable, you should know that pot will have $ 15 ($ 5 + $ 5 + $ 5) and you will get $ 10.50. This may be reasonable depending on certain factors, but you will agree that it is more difficult to get $ 10.50 in a pot of $ 15 in a $ 5.50 pot $ 20 (Example 1). So it is likely that you will have to fold this hand.
Example 3: You have 4 outs (gutshot)
4 outs on the turn is 4: 42 ... So, 1: 10.5 (approx. 1: 11). So I have to win a pot worth 11 times the size of the bet to make it profitable. If my opponent bets $ 5, so I have to expect to earn $ 55 to make it profitable. If the pot contains $ 25, so I have to raise $ 30 more at my opponent to give this game a positive mathematical expectation. Here, once you call the bet, the pot will be $ 35 and you get $ 30. Most of the time, you will not succeed and should fold your hand; depending on your reading of the opponent, it may be possible to get $ 30 in a pot of $ 35 ... but I think it is a really waiting too optimistic.
Example 4: You have 4 outs and play against a perfect fool.
It adopts the same reasoning as the previous example, but this time, your opponent is an idiot. He often put very little with his good hands, and he bets $ 5 here in the same pot of $ 25. You've seen him do this game before, and you know it is very strong: it has a triple or two pairs. You also know that you opponent will never be able to fold this hand, and he may even revive you, and can easily get all-in. So here, if your opponent has more than $ 30 behind him, you can reasonably expect to earn his belt. You will have the implied odds to draw to the gutshot.
The idea with implied odds is:
- To ensure that the carpet your opponent is enough (of course, your opponent can not put $ 25 in a pot if he has only $ 20).
- To have an idea of the range of your opponent's hand (his 'range') and be able to estimate if your opponent put money in the pot.
- Not too optimistic estimate of the money that your opponent is willing to lose (do not forget that your opponent may be very low, even on a bluff ... and it can be set to 'check / fold on the river)
Implied odds are often a reason that bad players use to rationalize their bad calls. You will often see opponents call a huge bet with a questionable draw ... finally simply extract a small bet on the river when they hit. In the long term, this will be a losing game! Do not be one of those players. Learn to estimate your implied odds, and you already become a more formidable player!
Remember that this concept also applies AGAINST you. So become aware of the size of your bets: if you bet too small with your good hands and that you do not get to the bed when pulling your opponent strikes you offer "reverse implied odds" gandes too.
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