In my last article, I asked you two Hold em limit problems. You must assume that your opponent is a bad loose/passive player.In my last article, I asked you two Hold em limit problems. You must assume that your opponent is a bad loose/passive player.
- You have Q - Q and you raise preflop. The button calls your bet. The flop has a King and a color drawing. You bet and your opponent calls your bet. The turn is useless and your opponent calls your bet again. The river full potential draw and your opponent gives you no tell. What do you do?
- You raise from the button with A - J and the big blind calls. The flop comes J-J-7 and the big blind check-call your bet. The turn is an 8 and again, the big blind check-call. The river is a 9, giving J-J-7-8-9 as community cards. Yet once again, the big blind pass. What do you do?
If you read my last article, j hope you've thought about these two problems. If you see them for the first time, take a few minutes to think about what you would do before continuing your reading.
You have your answers?
Well, in the first problem, I believe as it is fair to say that our opponent called our updates with at least a pair or a draw to the color. Let's give him credit have made a certain selection preflop, while keeping in mind what it is loose. We will eliminate hands like 7-2 and J-3 non-assorties, but let's say that he could call with n matter what assorted cards. Specify that the flop is K
8
3 . With such cards Commons, possible our opponent's hands would be A - K, K - Q, K - J, K - T, K-9, K - X with (without pairs), J - J, T - T, 9-9, 7-7, 6-6, 5-5, 4-4, 2-2, A - Q, A - J, A - T, A-8, Q-8, J-8, T-8, 9-8, 8-7, 8-6, 8-5, A-3, Q-3 assorted, 5-3, 4-3, 6-3 assorted and n matter what heart cards. So l can be exact calculations, the turn and River are the 5
and the T (to keep things simple, assume that if our opponent has a set of 5, he has lost his mind and he decided not to revive). We have Q Q 
as a hand. In addition, suppose that our opponent will only raise with a color, call s has a pair and lie with a single ACE. If we checkons, our opponent will bet 2 pair or better and bluffing with his ACE.With these assumptions that j've done, we have a well-defined problem that has an exact solution. Let's look at the solution.
There are altogether 298 possible hands our opponents may have; 134 hands (45 colours, 44 two pairs/three of a kind and 45 pairs) are greater than ours and 164 hands (22 missed colors and 142 pairs) are lower.
So many hands d a player loose, (45 percent to be precise) are superior to ours. In the hands which are below, we have assumed that our loose opponent calls with its range of hand except an ACE. This means that our opponent is going to sunset 22 hands facing our marketing. There are 142 hands with which it will call our bet and lose. In the hands which are greater than ours, we assumed qu it will call the bet with anything but a color (with which it will relaunch our implementation). He will call with 89 upper hands and relaunch the implementation with 45 hands.
Building, we win a bet 142 times, we lose a bet 89 times and we lose two updates 45 times (because here, we are not building "for value" to fold our hand to a simple reminder the topic d one of my next Chronicles); a loss of.12 updates by hand. As you can see, bet losing money l on the river; by that, I mean that if we ignore the rest of the pot and we look simply money that we put on the River, our bet will lose out.
What is the alternative? If we, our adversary will build two pairs or better, will with a pair and bluffera with a single ACE. Assuming that we will call his bet, it means that we lose a single bet on the river 89 times and we win a bet 22 times. The result is a loss of.22 updates by hand.
You can see as well as in this situation, the value bet is clearly superior to the check/call. In fact, in this particular situation, a check/fold would be a solid.2 less made qu a check/call. You can prove yourself of this calculation. The reason is that the pot is big enough that the 22 times you spend and your opponent bluff, fold its winning hand will be a disaster. Therefore, a value bet is your best game. (Note: If you had been the second to act and your opponent had passed 'in the dark', pass behind him would have been the good game.)
Surprised? Many people are. After all, color drawing has been completed, our opponent called updates since the beginning and we have not even the highest pair. It makes sense to bet against a tel calling station.
Let's look at the second question. Ago a suite of 4 cards on the table and we have no map allowing us to complete the pattern. Unlike the last problem, we position our opponent and we can simply checker behind him and see the unveiling. So, what should we do?
In fact, it depends on how until our opponent is loose/passive. Is - what he called with its lower pair even with these very dangerous community cards? Is - what would a check/call with a suite due to the possibility a hand full? If the answer to these questions is Yes, we want to bet for value. Indeed, the second question is much more important than the first. C is easy for our d opponent hitting a suite with such cards Commons but s it does not check-raise with its sequel, we still make money by betting.
Admit that its main range is something like 2-2 to 6-6, 7-8 to 7 - A (including 7 - J may have slowplaye), 8-9, 9-10, 8-10, 8-8, 9-9, 10-10, n matter what with valet (slowplay), J-7-J - A (slowplay), A-8, A-9, A-10, A - Q, A - K, K-8, K-9, K-10, K - Q. Even s he layer its lower pairs, there are 130 combinations of hands with which it will call our bet. Assuming that our opponent check - restart with only a hand full, it will not look enough value with his good hands to compensate all the time it will call the bet with a range of less good hand, and so lost the value on the river. To make money, it should check - raiser also with the suite. So, against a truly passive opponent type d opponent who is afraid to raise with a suite where community cards contain a pair, we must also make a value bet.
As the examples should l illustrate, make a value bet is a good strategy against players looses/passive players who do go that rarely bluff or bet with a mediocre hand, but who will call the bet with practically n matter what two cards. We, as players, should be constantly looking for opponents of this type. You'll hear a lot of 'experts' players complain about the fact that they hate the Hold'em limit because they can't bluff the bad players. This does not shock players who win on the back of this type of bad players. 'Experts' players are right: we cannot bluff a bad player but we can bleed to death in value bettant.
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