Strategy by Sebasdess article: blind flight and the magic number!
You're on the button, and all your opponents fold their hand up to you. You look at your cards: 83 s. You fold your hand without asking you more questions, and go to the next hand.
A similar situation might happen several times to you during your session. So often that you important probably more, convinced of having made the right set. However, you may be committing a costly error that affects your earnings in the long term...
The error is not, either, of folder your 83 s. Because sometimes, folder such a hand will be the good game to do. The error is instead of the folder without you question, because the situation can sometimes be beneficial. When? How? By a simple robbery of blinds attempt.
Start from the premise that 100% of the time when one of the players in the blinds call, he wins the pot. Therefore, you lose 100% of the time if your flight attempt fails. Can we still make this profitable long-term flight attempt? This is what we will attempt to measure.
Take the three sizings the most common for an open - raise the button, either 2 x, 2.5 x and 3 x size blinds. Personally, my standard raise is 2 x BB, allowing me to open lots of hand and play them in position. For 2 x, 2bb, may you have to win 1.5bb. 2.5 x, you may 2.5bb to win 1.5bb. And at 3 x, you risk 3bb to earn 1.5.
What should be your success rate to make this profitable flight no matter your cards?
I'll spare you algebra calculations, and I simply use the very simple "shortcut" that is to divide the size of your bet by the size of the pot + the size of your bet. So:
For 2 x BB: 2 /(1.5+2) = 0.5714
For 2.5 x BB: 2.5/(1.5+2.5) = 0.625
For 3 x BB: 3 /(1.5+3) = 0.667
Now that you know the "magic number" (break-even point) each of these updates, you must now calculate the chances that the two players in the blinds fold to your bet. Order, a simple multiplication is sufficient: multiplying the 'fold to steal"SB by the BB, you'll have the percentage of time that two players fold (to note here that the data would still be more accurate if you had a more accurate statistics of the situation as the «fold to steal from BTN SB» in the case of the SB player), and the 'fold to steal from BTN BB' in the case of the BB player. But for purposes of simplification, and as you will often not enough statistics about naughty to have a large enough sample, laughing matter here of the 'fold to steal"). Just then compare your "magic number" with your chances of success.
To better understand, are some examples. Take the time to do these exercises before reading the answer. Take for granted that you do your attempts at flight by making a minimum raise (2xbb):
Example 1:
SB has a fold to steal by 70%. BB has a fold to steal by 40%.
Can you do an attempted robbery with any cards?
70% of the time, SB will folder. When he fold, BB foldera also 40% of the time (40% of this 70%). So multiplying by 0.4 0.7, one can therefore calculate that the two players folderont 28% of the time (0.7 * 0.4 = 0.28). As 28% is smaller than.5714 in this case, the robbery attempt will be a negative gain hope (always starting from the premise where as soon as you caller, you lose).
Example 2: SB has a fold to steal at 80%. BB has a fold to steal at 75%.
Can you do an attempted robbery with any cards?
In the case here, the blinds are any two folder 60% of the time (0.8 * 0.75 = 0.6). It would be positive to revive all your cards, even a 72o.
Knowing that you will position if your flight attempt fails, you sometimes win the showdown with a marginal hand or that a simple "continuation bet" will be enough to win the pot, so you should always make a robbery attempt (regardless of your cards) as soon as the chances of your two opponents folder closer to the magic number. Most opponents are bad in the blinds, plus you can keep away you from is magical; Conversely, most opponents are competent in the blinds, less you should keep away you.
So next time, rather than folder without you question, add the 'fold to steal' your HUD and take a few moments to check the 'fold to steal"comparing to the"magic number ".
